December is approaching and the price of BTC is extremely undecided, as the bulls try to defend a support zone to avoid further losses. This makes us think in this Bitcoin analysis of the probability that we will see a Christmas rally.
Throughout the history of Bitcoin we have seen how generally the Christmas season has been positive for the price.
This time, although it seems that we are facing a scenario of a lot of uncertainty, some signs tell us that we could see a relief rally soon.
However, until we see clear confirmations, the bears will remain in control.
From Key Alerts a survey was opened to see what the public thinks. At the moment, 61.3% think that we will NOT see a bullish rally in December.
To make it clear to us what is happening, let’s look at the price charts.
Bitcoin Analysis: Weekly Chart Gives Hope of December Rally
After the rapid crash of the crypto market, we now see a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, which tells us that sellers do not have much strength to continue dragging the price down.
Bitcoin is in a relevant support zone, around $16,000. Add to that the divergence, and the lack of a sigh of relief, and we may see a rally soon, if only to fall again.
In the weekly chart we have $21,000 as the first resistance.
In the bearish case, the first support to cross is at $16,188. Further down, a first target could be $14,000.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, there are no positive confirmations yet, so the odds are still slightly skewed towards the sellers.
However, the early signals that we are seeing are relevant, so we cannot rule out a possible Bitcoin Christmas rally for this December.
Key short-term levels
Today Bitcoin is more than asleep, reaching the limit of a symmetrical triangle in which it has been locked for ten days.
Now that the space is shrinking within the pattern, it is very likely that we will see a slight pickup in volatility soon.
However, to expect a major directional move, we must first see that one of the closest key levels is broken through, which are:
- Resistance at $17,600
- Support at $16,000
For now, the trend is clearly down, so the odds are still leaning that way.
In the event that this trend resumes, the levels below would be:
If we see a significant bullish jump, confirming a relief rally, we are targeting:
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