Bitcoin: will there be a BTC rally in the first and second quarters of 2020?

Historically, the first month of the year is always bearish for Bitcoin prices. Maybe the means after the holiday season are thin or other factors are involved. However, this trend could reverse this year as the first quarter starts in the green.

Bitcoin price historically bearish in January

The historical monthly returns for the Bitcoin price in January have been negative in the past five years. 2015 was the worst January with a 27% loss, followed by 2018 when BTC lost 21.5%. Bitcoin fell 10% in the first month of the year last year – and only September was worse on average over the past nine years.

Bitcoin grew 85% last year, but was still below average compared to the positive previous years. Five months were bearish – and all of them in the second half of the year except January.

Observing quarterly returns over the past six years shows that the first quarter was bearish in four of those years, and only in 2017 and 2019 were profits recorded in the first three months of the year.

It’s still early – but Q1 2020 started in the green, Skew Analytics notes.

The clock has reset – seasonality for Q1 usually not great but looking green so far! pic.twitter.com/eH3Ann0ThB

— skew (@skewdotcom) January 3, 2020

Aside from the bubble in late 2017, Bitcoin’s second quarter has always had the best quarterly results in the past six years. Only in 2018 was there a negative value for April, May and June.

Last year, Q2 was the second best quarter in the past six years, according to skew data. The returns for this period were over 160%.

The big question is: will history repeat itself and produce solid profits for the BTC in the first half of 2020 ?

The year is only five days old, but the Bitcoin price has soared from $ 6,850 to $ 7,400 – 8%, according to Tradingview.com. BTC has risen 2.5% since the beginning of the month, trading sideways for six weeks.

The recent mini pump was probably driven by the geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. In turbulent times, investors flock to safe-haven assets like gold and oil. Bitcoin could now be among them as well, as the three assets rose sharply almost simultaneously with the news.

Bullish Q1 and Q2?

Given the geopolitical and economic pressures the world is currently experiencing, the outlook for Bitcoin is bullish in the first quarter. BTC has received great support over long periods of time and has not (yet) dropped to $ 5,000.

As halving approaches, momentum could increase, leading to another three-digit Q2 and an even better year.

Of course, it’s all just speculation – but with an asset that’s only a decade old, performance so far is the best we have for analysis.