Forex: Will the dollar support the economic reopening? The dollar has performed well since the health crisis began, but it remains in doubt whether this will continue to be the case.
Investors were betting on the dollar given the risk scenario that the Forex market faced. But, in the last few weeks, this feeling has changed.
The United States has failed to more effectively manage the conditions caused by the coronavirus.
The measures taken were awkward, and the little control achieved only allowed the pandemic to spread even more on the American continent.
Other currencies, such as the Euro, have performed better thanks to their good sanitary controls and correct management of the pandemic.
In this way, the United States reached a record number of infections on the continent on Wednesday, around 50,000.
COVID-19 is spreading throughout the American region. This could cause future destabilization in the economic sector. Raising concern among investors as to whether the dollar will withstand that pressure.
The employment rate increased: Will the dollar support?
On Thursday the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics updated the monthly unemployment figures in the USA. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 4.8 million jobs in June. Payroll recovered at $ 2,699 million in May.
The United States managed to generate jobs in record time since June, lowering the unemployment rate to 11.1%, from 13.3% last month.
This due to the opening of shops, stores, pubs, restaurants and bars, which allowed an increase in employees in the private sector. Faced with COVID-19, it seems that the American government promises to face it.
However, estimates vary widely.
Investor doubt grows amid concerns over whether the US economy can withstand its recovery. Well, as coronavirus infections increase and some states re-impose limits on business and personal activities, the doubt grows.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that the economy “had entered an important new phase sooner than expected.” But Powell warned that the outlook “is extraordinarily uncertain” and would depend on “our success in containing the virus.”
A situation that, up to now, has not been managed in the best way, casting doubt on whether the dollar will withstand the economic reopening.
The Dollar: Will It Still Be a Haven for Investors?
Expectations about the future of the dollar cause uncertainty for investors in the Forex market.
The American economy had already fallen into recession as of February.
As a result, many companies, including some that were not initially affected by the blockade measures, are struggling with weak demand.
Economists and industry watchers say this recession, coupled with the depletion of PPP loans, will trigger a new wave of layoffs.
A Reuters poll predicts further weakness for the dollar in the next 12 months due to weak global demand.
Although, the dollar has remained a safe haven for investors in the Forex market, risks in the investment of the American currency are estimated.
This in theory, could be negative for the performance of the currency and they keep the question of if the dollar will be able to support.
However, we emphasize that this possible negative performance depends on the capabilities of the United States government. Capabilities to withstand such a fast reopening and with such a density of job demand.
Situation of the dollar in the Forex market to date
At the time of writing this article, the dollar was trading at 1.1233 against the euro, with a slight rise in the session, as can be seen in the graph below.
GBPUSD is trading at 1.2474, after the greenback will hit a weekly low at 1.2529. Good employment data has given the dollar a breather against hard currencies.
In summary, although next week’s projections do not paint a good picture for the dollar in the Forex market, these events do not necessarily promise a drastic fall.
It is always important to study all the factors that make stocks rise.
In this case, the Federal Reserve shares recently created approximately $ 3 billion. Furthermore, the lack of high-yielding currency alternatives may provide a better future for the dollar, perhaps claiming that the dollar will be able to withstand the US economic situation.
Americans will now enjoy a long weekend of Independence Day, allowing investors to take in everything. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases will likely continue to increase.
What will be on Monday?