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Analysis: Bitcoin price continues lateral

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Some crypto market participants have started to jump higher, but what about BTC? Bitcoin’s price has been locked in on a boring side for about 80 days.

Knowing when exactly it will come out of it is impossible, however, some factors indicate that it may be very soon.

Open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to rise

The bears and the bulls are fighting in a strong accumulation of orders, where neither manages to take final control.

Trading volume tends to decrease in this type of scenario, but orders continue to accumulate, until one of both sides manages to obtain most of the approval of the consensus.

Many often leave the market when the activity is uninteresting, moving their capital to kinder land.

However, currently in the Bitcoin futures market, more have stayed, waiting for an escape from the boring range, and increasing pressure for this to happen sooner.

Open interest in Bitcoin futures for the past six months. Source: Skew
Open interest in Bitcoin futures for the past six months. Source: Skew

Knowing exactly where the price of Bitcoin is going to escape is impossible. However, the odds are pointing higher.

One way to measure this sentiment is by reading the premium of the perpetual futures markets. The longer the term of the contract, the higher its price, which is usually related to a healthy market.

Currently, the 3-month annualized premium on BTC futures is holding steady at around 4%, meaning the highest level in 30 days, making clear that there are still no signs that traders are leaning towards the low.

3-month annualized BTC futures premium. Source: Skew
3-month annualized BTC futures premium. Source: Skew

Bitcoin price technical analysis

Traders have their reason to stay positive, despite the strong range the price is going through. The reason is simple, the medium-term trend remains intact on the upside, and may also resume the long-term bullish direction soon.

As much as the price may go back, the behavior of Bitcoin throughout its history is still surprising, so those who trust its intrinsic value take advantage of situations like the current one to continue accumulating.

The 8 EMA and 18 SMA moving averages are crossed higher, and functioning as dynamic supports.

As long as the price continues above USDT 8,720, the medium-term trend remains intact.

Technical analysis of the price of Bitcoin. Source: TradingView
Technical analysis of the price of Bitcoin. Source: TradingView

Daily seasonality

From the daily chart you can better observe the limits of the lateral strong that the price of Bitcoin crosses, specifically with a resistance zone between USDT 9,940 and 10,370, and support between USDT 8,720 and 8,120.

Within this wide range, other supply and demand zones can be observed, as well as small trends.

In the very short term, the trend is downward, but it will be hampered by a zone of demand close to USDT 9,000.

The 200-day SMA is currently bullish, supporting strong BTC gains of the past 4 months.

Technical analysis of the BTC trend in the short term. Source: TradingView
Technical analysis of the BTC trend in the short term. Source: TradingView

All our publications are informative in nature, so they should not be accepted as investment advice under any circumstances.



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