BTC traders and investors bullish: is Bitcoin repeating its 2019 rally?

There is no longer any doubt: the Bitcoin sentiment has become bullish again. The psychological limit of $ 8,000 was not reached last weekend – and institutional investors are starting to buy again.

Bitcoin: market cycles are lengthening

In his latest video, analyst Benjamin Cowen has opted for a different perspective on price data and has excluded the irrational short-term price movements of the past year in his analysis.

The aim was to estimate how long the current accumulation phase will continue. The suggestion is that if the current trend continues, prices will slowly move up in the next market cycle. The cycles are lengthening, so the current phase could probably take another year.

Cowen makes several references to the 20-week moving average below which the BTC price is currently. It currently serves as resistance at just under $ 8,400, indicating that the bull market has not yet arrived.

A long-term trading signal has been bullish this week for the first time since March 2019 , and BTC has just closed its largest green weekly candle since late October.

Institutional interest is growing

Another measure of market sentiment is institutional interest, and that too seems to be slowly moving upwards.

Trader “Cantering Clark”, for example, notes that asset managers are starting to buy in a pattern similar to that seen in the first quarter of 2019.

Similar pattern to what we saw in early 2019.

Commitment of Traders Report for the CME.

Dramatic increase in longs by Asset Managers.

Highest since July. These are not "fast money"$BTC pic.twitter.com/RviHA4W9ZW

— Cantering Clark (@CanteringClark) January 11, 2020

According to this data, long positions are higher than they have been since July last year – shortly after the price high. According to the trader, this is not “quick money” – and this suggests that these positions come from “significant money” and not from high-leverage trading for quick returns.

“What I mean is the net increase that led to the premium. Leveraged funds were very short, unlike asset managers. Leveraged funds are quick money.”

Another potentially positive signal is that options on Bitcoin are also increasing – with some price predictions of $ 12k after halving. Crypto investor “Ceteris Paribus” has observed an exchange where contracts for a 50% move will open over the next five months.

$BTC $12K calls for ~1 month after halvening being sold for $430 on @FTX_Official

For people who don't understand options, btc needs to be $12,430 to break-even (+53% from here). Every $430 above $12,430 is a double.

Eg. – If price $15K on June 25, return is (15-12)/0.43 = 600% pic.twitter.com/b24t90yY8K

— Ceteris Paribus (@ceterispar1bus) January 12, 2020

In addition, another institutional Bitcoin product in the form of CME option contracts is being launched today. JP Morgan’s managing director described it as “eagerly awaited” because the stock market is much larger than Bakkt.

If Bitcoin stays above $ 8K and keeps the bears in check, it won’t be long before another sustained surge takes place – one that finally confirms that we’re back in a bull market.