What will rise in price and what will fall in 2020?
What will rise in price and what will fall in 2020?
The year 2020 begins with increases in train tickets, toll roads, except for rescued, and commissions of several banks, while the price of housing will again become more expensive and the increase in IBI will not exceed 5%, while natural gas will drop by an average of 4% and airport charges will be maintained.
These variations are accompanied by the maintenance of pensions, the SMI and the salary of public employees, as decided by the acting Government pending the investiture and establishing a new Executive with full functions.
Once a new Government is satisfied, the salary of officials will rise by 2%, to which another 0.3% may be added for additional funds; while pensions will be revalued by 0.9% and minimum pensions by 3%, together with a further increase in the SMI yet to be determined.
Trains and highways
As for train fares, Renfe will raise the price of tickets for all its trains in 2020, so that the AVE and Long Distance will be increased by 1.10%, the first rise in three years, and those of Cercanías and regional will increase by 1%, the first increase since 2015.
On the other hand, the Media Distancia service, regional route trains, will also rise 1% in the case of those traveling on conventional lines. The Avant, which circulate on AVE lines, the single ticket will rise 1.2%, although the ‘multi-axis bonds’ will remain unchanged.
On the other hand, In trains that run along narrow roads in the north of the country, those of the extinct Feve, the increase in tickets for 2020 will be 1.1%. As for the highways, the average toll price of the highways that make up the state network will rise 0.84% as of January 1, 2020.
The climb will be applied on all highways dependent on the General State Administration, except for the nine that were ‘rescued’ by the State when they went bankrupt during the crisis and currently managed by the Ministry of Development.
These nine highways, which total about 700 kilometers, are the four radials of Madrid, the M-12 that connects the capital and the airport, the AP-41 Madrid-Toledo, the AP-36 Ocaña-La Roda and the sections of the AP-7 between Cartagena and Vera, and the Alicante Ring Road.
The applicable Aena airport fees will drop 1.4% from March 2020, as reported by the National Commission for Markets and Competition (CNMC).
The Airport Regulation Document (DORA) for 2017-2021, regulatory framework that sets the tariff path, contemplates a reduction of 11% in Aena’s rates and guarantees that they cannot be uploaded until 2025 by opening the door, in any case, to new ones downs.
To this is added, the reduction of around 12% in air navigation rates in 2019, collected in the ‘Flight Plan 2020’ of Enaire. This measure, after the 12% reduction applied in 2019 and 3% in 2018, will offset the increase in air traffic higher than expected.
On the other hand, the subsidy of the price of air and sea transport tickets of residents in non-peninsular territories is maintained at 75%.
On the other hand, several financial institutions have already advanced an increase in customer commissions for the new fiscal year, so that conditions will be tightened for customers who open a free account.
Specifically, Santander will charge customers for its 1,2,3 accounts and charge nine euros per month for the Day-to-Day account; BBVA will increase maintenance fees from 60 to 100 euros per year, except in cases of a monthly periodic income of at least 600 euros and have five direct debits. For their part, Sabadell and Bankia have also modified their commission exemption program to link customers more.
As for the Euribor, it placed its average in December at -0.266% and experts believe that it will continue in ‘red’ throughout 2020 as the expectations of a rapid rate hike by the ECB have moved away. This will mean that variable rate mortgages will continue at very low levels, although entities have already protected themselves by increasing the contracting of fixed rate mortgages.
Regarding telecommunications, this year the operators have not announced increases for the beginning of the year, although some have already made increases in 2019, which could be repeated in the coming months.
In principle, the main operators (Telefónica, Vodafone, Orange and MásMóvil) will keep the prices of the line fee for the new year.
Energy and gas
In the case of electricity, the regulated part of the receipt (which represents around 41% of the invoice) will be extended by 2020 for the sixth consecutive year, so that the evolution of the invoice will depend on the behavior of the wholesale market, known as ‘pool’, which affects just over a third of the receipt.
However, given that the toll competitions for transport and electricity distribution have been transferred to Competition, these could drop by an average of 5.6%, depending on the draft of the circular by which the calculation methodology is established, that would have a downward impact on the electricity bill.
The 25% of the receipt corresponding to VAT and the Electricity Tax will also be maintained, although the remaining 35% related to consumption will depend on the evolution of the prices of the ‘pool’, which in December have gone down.
With the new year, the modification of the pricing system will come into effect in the new electricity tariff, which will vary depending on the time, depending on the day of the week and depending on the geographical location.
Meanwhile, the Last Resort Rate (TUR) of natural gas will fall from January 1 on average 4% compared to the last quarter of this year, thus resuming the declines after remaining the last two quarters of this frozen 2018.
For its part, the price of the butane bottle stands at 12.74 euros, after having risen 4.86% in November, so we will have to wait in the middle of the month to see if it becomes more expensive.
New taxes and housing
In the tax chapter, the new Government could retake some of the agreed measures for the failed 2019 Budgets, such as an increase in income tax for very high incomes and a minimum tax of 15% in Companies, as well as an increase of 1 % in Patrimony for fortunes of more than 10 million.
Likewise, the idea of lowering VAT from feminine hygiene products from 10% to 4% and veterinary services from 21% to 10% could be recovered, and the new tax on digital services is also pending (‘Google Rate’ ) and the creation of the tax on financial transactions (‘Tobin Rate’), as well as the new diesel tax to match that of gasoline and other ‘green’ taxes.
In terms of housing, the forecasts of the main portals and real estate agents point to a rise in prices both in the purchase and in rent.
Fotocasa figures the increase by 3%, Moody’s at 5.5% and Servihabitat places it at 4.8%, with a 4% increase in sales. Pisos.com estimates that the cost of acquiring a home will be between 2% and 4% higher, and the cost of renting between 4% and 6% higher.
In addition, the Government has approved the update coefficients of the cadastral values for 2020, which will involve 1,092 municipalities, which will have effects on the Property Tax (IBI).
The update results in global average ups and downs that reach 3%, although the maximum increase does not exceed 5%.